Naslov
Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice : A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1, 015 World Bank Projects

Autori
Pohl, Gerhard ; Mihaljek, Dubravko

Izvornik
World bank economic review (0258-6770) 6 (1992), 2; 255-277

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Investment return rates ; Economic models ; World Bank ; Value appraisal ; Linear regression ; Commodity prices ; Price distortions ; Economic indices ; Economic costs
(Investment return rates, Economic models, World Bank, Value appraisal, Linear regression, Commodity prices, Price distortions, Economic indices, Economic costs)

Sažetak
This article analyzes the World Bank's experience with project evaluation for a sample of 1, 015 projects by comparing estimated rates of return at appraisal with reestimated rates of return when construction works are completed, usually 5 to 10 years after appraisal. The analysis highlights the high degree of uncertainty in project analysis. A wide range of variables has been introduced to explain the observed divergence in appraisal and reestimated rates of return, but only a relatively small part of the divergence can be explained, even with the benefit of hindsight. Project analysis thus has to cope with a large degree of uncertainty, which the traditional methods of project evaluation and selection have not been able to reduce.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA