Naslov
Recent and Future Changes of Dry Spells in Croatia

Autori
Marinović, Ivana ; Cindrić Kalin, Ksenija ; Güttler, Ivan ; Pasarić, Zoran

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Abstract book / - Sydney : UNSW, 2018, 220-220

Skup
AMOS-ICSHMO Joint Meeting 2018

Mjesto i datum
Sydney, Australija, 05.02.2018. - 09.02.2018

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
dry spells, Croatia, climate models, trend

Sažetak
Drought in Croatia causes the highest economic losses inflicting serious damages, especially in agricultural sector. Present study performs a systematic analysis of dry spells (DS) in Croatia. DS are defined as consecutive sequences of days having daily precipitation less than a given precipitation- per-day threshold. Here, a commonly used threshold in climate and agriculture practice, that of 5 mm is used. Daily precipitation data from a dense national rain-gauge network (forming seven climatological regions) and spanning the time period 1961–2015 are employed. First, the spatial and temporal characteristics of mean and maximum seasonal and annual DS are analyzed using the empirical orthogonal functions. Recent changes in DS are investigated with the trend estimations by means of Kendall’ tau method. Additional period 1971–2000 is defined. For this period both observation based DS and regional climate models’ based DS analysis is performed. Regional climate models (RCMs) in the present study originate from the EURO-CORDEX initiative and are forced at their boundaries by the CMIP5 global climate models. They cover European domain at the 12.5-km horizontal resolution, resulting in a realistic orography and land-sea structures over Croatia. For the 1971–2000, RCMs’ systematic errors in terms of the DS statistics will be examined. Finally, projections and future changes in the DS statistics will be based on the RCM simulations under the high and medium greenhouse gases concentration scenarios (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) with the focus on the climate change signal between 1971–2000 and two future periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

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