Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 967543
A prediction for the solar cycle 24
A prediction for the solar cycle 24 // Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.
Šibenik, Hrvatska, 2009. str. 7-7 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, sažetak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 967543 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
A prediction for the solar cycle 24
Autori
Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Cliver, Ed ; Svalgard, Leif ; Hanslmeier, Arnold ; Woehl, Hubertus ; Roth, Martin
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni
Izvornik
Book of Abstract - Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.
/ - , 2009, 7-7
Skup
Heliophysical Phenomena and Earth's Enviroment.
Mjesto i datum
Šibenik, Hrvatska, 07.09.2009. - 13.09.2009
Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje
Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija
Ključne riječi
strength of the solar cycle, sunspot number, ARMA, correlation
Sažetak
Applying and combining different methods, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted. The combined method consists of the three parts: (i) the calculation of the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases, (ii) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima with the following activity maxima, and (iii) the method of the auto regressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the relative sunspot number data measured up to now. The used data sets include yearly, corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values. With these combined procedures a lower amplitude of the next solar activity maximum, in comparison with the previous one, is estimated.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Geofizika
POVEZANOST RADA
Ustanove:
Geodetski fakultet, Zagreb,
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb
