Naslov
Index number mathematics application to the Gross Domestic Product decomposition

Autori
Jurun, Elza ; Šutalo, Ivan ; Njavro Mato

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
The 6th International Conference on Information Technology / - Amman : Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan, 2013, 1-12

ISBN
978-9957-8583-1-5

Skup
The 6th International Conference on Information Technology

Mjesto i datum
Amman, Jordan, 08.05.2013. - 13.05.2013

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Tornqvist, Fisher and Lloyd-Moulton model, Gross Domestic Product decomposition, superlative indices, elasticity of substition, additive GDP consistency

Sažetak
In the focus of this paper is a new methodological approach to upgrading the statement of Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and implicit GDP deflators – on annual and quarterly bases. For a long time in the practice of National statistical agencies the chain-linking methodology has been used. By means of chain linking, index number drift has been resolved partially in the sense of the second best solution. As time passes Laypeyres index with fixed base substantially overestimates Paasche index as further as index base is being left in the past. Paasche price index is lower compared to its Laspeyres counterpart but it is the most appropriate GDP deflator due to statistical (Cauchy theorem) and economic (substitution-transformation effect) reasons. Relying on index numbers’ theoretical considerations of so called “superlative indices” the authors unanimously chose Törnqvist and Fisher index from all superlative indices as superior one. Superlative indices satisfy the most theoretical and practical requirements relevant for GDP compilation. Lloyd-Moulton index has been also calculated because the key point was econometric estimation of elasticity of substitution. The complete estimation procedure has been carried out on the case study of Croatia. Data base dealing with Croatian Quarterly GDP data has been come with the scope from q1 2000 to q4 2007. Lloyd-Moulton index is not superlative but it measures substitution in the best way which can be estimated by various econometric applications. Besides it possesses the most important theoretical property of superlative indices – exact decomposition. Putting together Lloyd-Moulton with Törnqvist and Fisher indices authors have constructed Lloyd-Moulton-Törnqvist-Fisher (LMTF) model. LMTF model improves GDP price-volume decomposition due to more precise substitution measurement. Fisher index supported by LMTF model has been also built and it resolves the problem of additive (absolute and relative) inconsistency in GDP data. Another significant achievement of the paper is keeping product test identity (volume = volume times price). An integral part of the survey are testing results which prove that Fisher index supported by LMTF model can be considered as "ideal" in the practical applications.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

POVEZANOST RADA