Naslov
What does affect the prices of Croatian exports and imports?

Autori
Tomić, Daniel ; Bukovac, Dominik

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Organization and Uncertainty in the Digital Age / Arsanijević, Olja ; Podbregar, Iztok ; Šprajc, Polona ; Trivian, Dragan ; Ziegler, Yvonne - Maribor : Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru, 2018, 1095-1109

ISBN
978-961-286-146-9

Skup
37th International Conference on Organizational Science Development

Mjesto i datum
Portorož, Slovenija, 21.03.2018. - 23.03.2018

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
export and import prices, exchange rate, pass-through effect, terms of trade, efficiency of trade, cointegration, economic policy

Sažetak
Shifts in national output are often associated with relative price movements. Namely, an increase in export prices which benefits one sector of the economy often leads to increase investment in this sector and re-allocation of resources within the whole economy. Relative price changes are reflected in the terms of trade of a country, albeit to different degree and direction depending on the composition of its exports and imports. On the other side, movements in terms of trade and/or exchange rate reflect changes in relative prices, so it is often unclear how these movements affect the real economy and national welfare. High export/import to gross domestic product ratio and high trade deficit bear out the necessity of studying how import and export prices shape Croatian trade and growth perspectives. Thus, the goal of this paper is to evaluate how changes in terms of trade (trade gains) and exchange rate (pass-through effect) affect the prices of Croatian exports and imports in order to cast some doubts on the efficiency of trade and exchange rate policies. Empirical model was estimated with the usage of Johansen cointegration method for the long-run and parsimonious vector error correction model for the short-run relationship. Additionally, we introduced Markow switching approach to track possible non-linearity. Results reveal higher sensitivity of export and import prices on their mutual relationship and lower sensitivity on developments in terms of trade and exchange rate.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project number 9481 Modelling Economic Growth - Advanced Sequencing and Forecasting Algorithm. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Croatian Science Foundation.

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