Naslov
Empirical tests of various cycle extraction methods ; GDP vs. industrial production in Croatia

Autori
Tomić, Daniel ; Stjepanović, Saša

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Economic and Social Development / Božina Beroš, M. ; Recker, N. ; Kozina, M. - Varaždin : VADEA ; Sveučilište Sjever ; Faculty of Management University of Warsaw, 2018, 27-37

ISBN
9-771849-753006

Skup
The 27th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development

Mjesto i datum
Rim, Italija, 01.03.2018. - 02.03.2018

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
business cycles, deviation cycle analysis, cycle extraction methods, parametric and non-parametric methods, filters, Croatia

Sažetak
Business cycles at their peak can be harmful for the whole economy, yet producing negative growth rates at their bottom. Since there is no general agreement on the causes of business cycles, the most intriguing debates revolve around the question on how to measure these phenomena. A central part of the business cycle analysis is therefore, the extraction of the cycles. The goal of this paper is to empirically test various extraction methods as to find which variable is suited to be named a reference business cycle indicator in Croatia as well as to evaluate the quality and accuracy of these extraction methods. Namely, we focused on deviation cycle extraction methods and compared them with an alternative business cycle approach, the growth rates. It was found that no method yields perfect results, however, most of the extraction methods showed much agreement in confirming a GDP indicator as a credible variable in representing Croatian business cycle.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Napomena
ACKNOWLEDGMENT: This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project number 9481 Modelling Economic Growth - Advanced Sequencing and Forecasting Algorithm. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Croatian Science Foundation.

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