Naslov
Study of waterspout forecasting method over the eastern Adriatic using high resolution numerical weather model

Autori
Renko, Tanja ; Ivušić, Sarah ; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja ; Šoljan, Vinko ; Horvat, Igor

Izvornik
Pure and applied geophysics (0033-4553) 175 (2018), 11; 3759-3778

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
waterspout ; Adriatic ; Szilagyi Waterspout Index ; WRF ; convection

Sažetak
In this study a synoptic and mesoscale analysis was performed and Szilagyi's waterspout forecasting method was tested on ten waterspout events in the period 2013-2016. Data about waterspout occurrences were collected from the weather stations, an online survey at the official Web site of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. Synoptic weather conditions were analyzed using surface pressure fields and 500 hPa level synoptic charts, SYNOP reports and atmospheric soundings. For all observed waterspout events a synoptic type was determined using 500 hPa geopotential height chart. The occurrence of lightning activity was determined from the LINET lightning database and waterspouts were divided into thunderstorm related and ''fair weather'' ones. Mesoscale characteristics (with focus on thermodynamic instability indices) were determined by using the high resolution (500 m) mesoscale numerical weather model and model results where compared with the available observations. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) was tested using vertical atmospheric profiles provided by the mesoscale numerical model. The SWI successfully forecasted all waterspout events, even the winter waterspout event. This indicates that the Szilagyi's waterspout prognostic method could be used as valid prognostic tool for the eastern Adriatic.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

POVEZANOST RADA