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International Scientific Conference Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb & Economics Journal Room 14 (New Conference Room), Faculty of Economics and Business Bldg., Zagreb Zagreb, 25th of October 2017 `5 P P G +  I  -   ] !           0I[ <6+' 3f3f___PPT10i.rC`jX+D=' = @B +y- (  =   p~0e0e?Title 1j  -j y#EU and economic policy coordination$$#   <   w0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j VCroatia was under European Semester framework immediatelly after entering European Union Europen Commission launched two policy coordination initiatives: Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) and Macroenomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), while Croatian National Bank became member of the ESCB    3f3f80___PPT10. "- g_G(  /   p0e0e?Title 1j  -j kMain challenges ahead       y0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j Croatia exited from EDP in 2017, because fiscal deficit was reduced and public debt growth has been reversed, although at projected level of 84,1 % it is still above the indicative treshold of 60 % of GDP But, EC will continue with other monitoring tools within SGP and will continue with & Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure, because Croatia accumulated excessive macroeconomic imbalances (external imbalances are crucial) and Croatia has to achieve  real convergence   3f3f80___PPT10.hB"- (  6   p}0e0e?Title 1j  -j rImbalances and their gravity    T    }0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j nPrivate sector debt is about 120 % of GDP, and it remains heavily exposed to currency risks In banking system there is a rapid accumulation of NPLs, and financial system remains exposed to the credit risk of its unhedged borrowers (unregulated shadow banking & Agrokor, are they Croatia s Lehman Brothers?) High level of external debt (that moderatelly schrunk due to the deleveraging process) and a negative international investment position (NIIP) Potential output growth remains low, due to the subdued productivity growth     3f3f80___PPT10.o"-  (  C   p`0e0e?Title 1j  -j )Evolution, prospects and policy responses**)   v   }0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j 4The general government deficit is under control, while the debt-to-GDP ratio has moved onto the declining path, after tax reform (domestic payment arrears in public health sector?) Simoultaneous deleveraging of households, government and businesses is resulting in current account surpluses and the progressive reduction of external liabilities (but, external debt increase likely after default of Agrokor?) Uneployment has declined sharply, although mostly due to the shrinking labour force (employment is lower due to emigration, and well bellow EU targets) Market inefficiencies still constrain potential growth (risks of  secular stagnation in the medium term)     3f3f80___PPT10.p7".- 0 n(   6   p@~0e0e?Title 1j  -j rMIP Matrix and MIP Scorecard       w0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j MIP Matrix for Croatia 2017 indicates all the macroeconomic imbalances, gravity of challenge, evolution of imbalances and policy responses that are required to address imbalances MIP Scorecard 2010  2015, and MIP Scorecard for 2017 indicates quantitative thresholds, aiming to indicate gravity and dynamics of the macroeconomic imbalances 2010 - 2017``_    3f3f80___PPT10. u"#- {@$c(  $, $  p0e0e?Title 1j  -j hOverall Assessment     $  0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j The unwinding of debt related imbalances is accelerating on the basis of stronger economic growth, but vulnerabilities persist The financial sector is relativelly stable, but exposure to credit, currency and interest rate risks remains (negative spillover effects from Italy, in case of banking crisis? Target2 & ECB?) Progress with structural reforms has been limited (Country - Specific Recommendations, CSRs?) Euro adoption strategy for Croatia requires gradual and complex structural reforms; eurozone entry is impossible before Croatia successfully correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances and exit from MIP procedure and fiscal policy SGP monitoring Political (in)stability: new Coalition government (HDZ-HNS-other) has a narrow margin in the Parliament      %            /       3f3f80___PPT10.p!ݶ"- woP(W(  (% (  p 0e0e?Title 1j  -j a Conclusions       (  0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe -j Structural reforms are lagging behind the schedule (National Reform Programme is not implemented) Monetary policy is deflationary (NPLs, monetary transmision mechanism is not working, credit crunch, deleveraging of EU cross-border banks, persistent low inflation or deflation, real interest rates too high, unregulated shadow banking & ) Policymakers have only two options: (a) reflation (currency depreciation); or, (b) internal devaluation (wage deflation or fiscal devaluation); euroisation is possible in 2030? Increased systemic risks in 2017 and 2018 (Agrokor collapse and banking crisis in Italy?)]]\    3f3f80___PPT10.o&"9- ,y(  , ,  p0e0e?Title 1jj  -jF>___PPT9  sEurozone debt crisis "   ,  0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2"( " PK![Content_Types].xmlJ0*miG]`Hm6 Xwt?. g#Wi3E).+7 >ON ޑ1ˋz "+R RhB.} /<^ITխ%rHK4uK~I0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!!8drs/shapexml.xml[[o6~ uHn:QCF`)XkH]'~ߡ$Ц6BR9v^hx~g"/_y7b>\@9D M*f˥djZ)5xnYi*6D5TU͊9 So:";+@bw7N/#Ǯpr1!A@!!B|?yFe=QnocUaPz/kW>*ۦۃ/4|$?E1edǴ 6V>lh"WP`#{lXRuH4q]R~rt;}%L%kUuWLQ54݃p=A,5 ;{bM#5<'zR?ޑ#K Dܳդ3ӥ^_Q c {Շpp_~Wǧ`[v5{B`V3X`5zC֬o+v@V{>wCuo=} 6w6!c?1~" tB?rw/T7 &{:rw1v[_n_:zȚ(܊Cі'PK!Idrs/downrev.xmlDKK@ab'Z|{[" >_3Ihf&L;7_=;Xp=M@)jL۾\=F8lNYs SBCR)}Y&?btT׭I;1񡦎W5Q#Lvx(w=|~R ^^O E ab\;M%PK!drs/_rels/shapexml.xml.relsk0`CݦȰ-̃ې1?fR~1<%(JCqk,C)qaF"dMfՎIeL@]I!`>UI[xބ 4eɆ^-$y'͙%ԸQJ0Ym}߻LKA{fxt.}L}ʟ̭'=PBÃ+Í(Ydepb̫n/]9O6ljPK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a ._rels/.relsPK-!!8)drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!Ixdrs/downrev.xmlPK-!~drs/_rels/shapexml.xml.relsPK> Pej -jF>___PPT9  PJoseph Stiglitz, Nobel-winning economist Stiglitz slams the euro in new book https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf32ChNXbXs Hans - Werner Sinn,  The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Belief https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm6REM-AFTg Joseph Stiglitz,  The Euro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECoW1nnTrjo Adair Turner,  Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit and Fixing Global Finance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnB18YHA5AU ,;+N++V+6Mx8:=< 3f3f80___PPT10.Lļ"T -   `0 (  0< 0  p0e0e?Title 1j  -j x"Main references &      0  0e0e?,Content Placeholder 2Pe  -j (European Commission, (2017): Country Report Croatia 2017 Including an In-Depth Review on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances; Brussels, 22.2.2017 European Commission, (2017): Debt Sustainability Monitor 2016; European Economy Institutional Paper 047; Brussels; January 2017 J)u3 CF        N 0   0e0e?,Content Placeholder 3Pm  -j___PPT9tl Radosevic, Dubravko and Vidakovic, Neven, (2015): Monetary Policy versus Structural Reforms: The Case of Croatia; Munich Personal RePEc Archive; MPRA Working Papers No. 63955; University of Munich; Munich; April 2015 Radosevic, Dubravko (2017): Euro Enlargement Between Convergence And (De)Financialization; Social Europe; 3rd of October 2017; London https://www.socialeurope.eu/euro-enlargement-convergence-definancialization 2>i   *  E  .   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