Naslov
Forecasting labour productivity in the European Union member states: is labour productivity changing as expected?

Autori
Žmuk, Berislav ; Dumičić, Ksenija ; Palić, Irena

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts ICOS2017- The International Conference on Official Statistics: Challenges, Opportunities and Future Directions in Official Statistics, March 30-31, 2017 in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina / Kremić, Emir ; Kozarić, Kemal - Sarajevo : Institute for Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, School of Economics and Business in Sarajevo, University of Sarajevo, 2017, 90-92

ISBN
978-9958-25-123-8

Skup
ICOS2017: Challenges, Opportunities and Future Directions in Official Statistics, March 30-31, 2017 in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Mjesto i datum
Sarajevo, Bosna i Hercegovina, 30.03.2017. - 31.03.2017

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
competitiveness ; European Union member states ; labour productivity ; statistical forecasting methods ; weighting

Sažetak
In order to be competitive and to ensure economic growth a country should take care about its labour productivity development. Not only the labour productivity must be observed in present time but the projections of future trends and its developments must be conducted. Consequently, the aim of the paper is to propose different ways of forecasting labour productivity developments by using different statistical forecasting methods and by applying different approaches of the most appropriate statistical forecasting method selection. In the paper are examined labour productivities, measured per employee and per hour worked, in the European Union (EU) member states in period from 1990 to 2016. In the forecasting analysis seven statistical forecasting methods have been used to forecast labour productivity for each EU member states separately and for the EU as whole. Overall three approaches to determine the forecast values of labour productivity have been used in the analysis. In the first approach the forecast values were determined by using statistical forecasting method with the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE). In the second approach the forecasting was conducted based on data from 1990 to 2015. The statistical forecasting method with the closest forecasting value from 2016 to the real value from 2016 was used to determine labour productivity changes in the future. In the third approach, which was introduced in the paper, all seven statistical forecasting methods were used together to determine forecasts. The impact of each statistical forecasting method was determined by using MSE approach. The lower MSE of a statistical forecasting method is, the higher impact or the higher weight on the forecasts the statistical forecasting method will have. In order to make groups of the EU member states with different labour productivity level, statistical non- hierarchical clustering approach was used. According to the labour productivity per employee measure, at standard forecasting approach, forecasts labour productivity will increase in 14 EU member states in the future whereas according to the labour productivity per hour worked measure the labour productivity will increase in 18 countries. Similar, benchmark forecasting approach show labour productivity level increase in 18 EU member states. Weighting forecasting approach forecasted labour productivity decrease only in Luxembourg and in Spain. According to the weighting forecasting approach and the average labour productivity per employee trend value for low level labour productivity countries is 1, 221.03 US$, for medium level labour productivity countries is 1, 093.41 US$, and for high level labour productivity countries is –7.36 US$. These results are suggesting that countries with lower labour productivity level are going to have higher labour productivity increase per year than countries with higher labour productivity level. On that way, the differences in labour productivity between countries should be smaller. In the future research labour productivity level convergence in the EU should be investigated. Furthermore, the labour productivity should be examined more detailed, i.e. on monthly base, to get better insight into labour productivity trends.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA