Naslov
Temperature and precipitation change over the Mediterranean region

Autori
Srnec, Lidija ; Stilinović, Tomislav ; Güttler, Ivan ; Branković, Čedomir

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, neobjavljeni rad, znanstveni

Skup
Joint Congress of the 6th International Conference on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean (MetMed) & Challenges in Meteorology 5 (MI5)

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 20.02.2017. - 22.02.2017

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
climate change, temperature, precipitation, Mediterranean, EURO-CORDEX

Sažetak
In the context of climate change, the Mediterranean region has been perceived as a very vulnerable area. Regarding the last IPCC reports, the climate of the Mediterranean is expected to become warmer and drier during the 21st century. In this work we analyse an ensemble of regional climate models’ (RCMs) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. RCMs were forced by CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 12.5 km). Uncertainty of the future climate is estimated by taking into account simulations which used three different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Climate change is considered for three different periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 relative to the referent period 1971-2000. Projections for the near-surface temperature in the early-future period (2011-2040) indicate a slight warming for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Towards the middle of the century, the warming is more pronounced, particularly in summer and autumn - up to 2 °C for RCP2.6 and up to 4 °C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By the end of century the projected warming becomes large with highest summer values for RCP8.5 scenario of about 4 - 6 °C. The future change of total precipitation is not as consistent as for temperature. For all scenarios in all future periods, the range of change includes both negative and positive values. However, towards the end of the century the climate change signal becomes unambiguous and for the RCP8.5 scenario most models show a decrease of precipitation, the largest being in spring and summer of up to -40%.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA