Naslov
Comparison of abilities and results using market opinion and simulation – the case of the UEFA European Championship 2016

Autori
Munđar, Dušan ; Šamarija, Dario

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, ostalo

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts - 16th International Conference on Operational Research - KOI 2016 / Rudolf Scitovski, Marijana Zekić-Sušac - Osijek : Hrvatsko društvo za operacijska istraživanja (CRORS), 2016, 135-135

Skup
16th International Conference on Operational Research - KOI 2016

Mjesto i datum
Osijek, Hrvatska, 27.09.2016. - 29.09.2016

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
Betting market ; Football ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Sports analytics

Sažetak
Operational research (OR) has a long history of application in the area of sport. For more than fifty years OR methods have been used to optimize teams’ structure and tournament schedules, to predict results and solve other problems. Modeling and decision making in football has caught attention of the operational research audience. Ranking of teams and whether the best team won are frequently raised topics. We raise a question which team was the best in UEFA European Championship 2016, or in short EURO 2016. Match results are influenced not only by teams’ skills, but also by a whole range of more or less random factors. Betting market is supposed to be informed about the teams’ abilities. Bookmakers’ valuations are presented in a form of fixed odds, which are available before the game. We use fixed odds from bookmakers to estimate abilities of the teams. Abilities are presented in a form of expected average number of goals in a game for a team. Estimated abilities are used to model match result and corresponding match outcome (win, draw or lose). Match results are modeled by modified Poisson distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to replay EURO 2016, modeling match outcomes as independent Poisson variates based on estimated capabilities of teams. Teams’ winning probabilities are estimated by this simulation. Simulation results are compared to actual results.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Matematika, Računarstvo, Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti

POVEZANOST RADA