Naslov
The challenges of estimating monthly national accounts data in Croatia

Autori
Sorić, Petar ; Čižmešija, Mirjana ; Lolić, Ivana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceeding of the ISCCRO - International Conference in Croatia / Dumičić, K. ; Erjavec, N. ; Pejić Bach, M. - Zagreb : Hrvatsko statističko društvo, 2016, 47-54

Skup
The 1st International Statistical Conference in Croatia: New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 05.05.2016. - 06.05.2016

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Business and Consumer Surveys; National accounts; Temporal disaggregation
(business and consumer surveys; national accounts; temporal disaggregation)

Sažetak
This paper is a pioneer attempt of estimating monthly GDP data in Croatia. More specifically, the authors employ six different temporal disaggregation methods using five Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) composite indicators as regressors. The obtained results seem to confirm that the Fernandez and Litterman methods are superior to the Chow and Lin approach. Not less important, the results demonstrate that BCS represent a valuable source of macroeconomic information. The obtained monthly version of GDP cyclically follows its quarterly counterpart. This study unveils some new possibilities of regularly publishing monthly national accounts data in Croatia. This would bring substantial methodological modernisation to the Croatian official statistics, as well as it would largely help the researchers to more easily and more accurately date the business cycle peaks and troughs. The final positive effect for economic professionals and the interested public would be undisputable.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
Sažetak rada objavljen je u zborniku sažetaka: Book of Abstracts of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia, 05-06.05.2016., Conference topic: "New Challenges of Official and Applied Statistics in European Union", Vol.1, No.1., IISN 1849-9864, p. 14. Objavljivanje rada podržano je od strane Hrvatske zaklade za znanost, u sklopu istraživačkog projekta IP-2013-11-3858. Autori rada primili su nagradu za najbolji rad u sekciji "Special Session for Challenges of Official Statistics".

POVEZANOST RADA