Naslov
Croatian First Football League: Prediction of teams' ranking in the championship

Autori
Munđar, D., Šimić, D.

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia / - Zagreb : Hrvatsko statističko društvo, 2016, 211-217

Skup
International Statistical Conference in Croatia 2016

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 05.05.2016. - 06.05.2016

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
football ; Poisson distribution ; predictive analytics ; sports analytics

Sažetak
Goal of our research was to use simulation modelling for prediction of Croatian Football League seasonal ranking. We have developed a model of number of goals scored by a team in a match based on Poisson distribution. Parameters of the model were estimated from the data on the first part of the season. Final rankings were predicted from 1000 simulation runs of the second part of the season based on the model. For each team the most frequent outcome of the simulation defined the team's rank. The method was validated on Season 2014/15. Prediction was correct for the first five teams. Final ratings in Croatian Football League, Season 2015/16 were predicted from data on the first 21 rounds. This is a feasible method for dynamic prediction of final rankings during the season. Advantage of the method is that in addition to predicting the final ranking it also estimates probabilities of alternative positions.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

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