Naslov
A comparison between the observed and predicted amplitude of the 24th Solar cycle

Autori
Brajša, Roman ; Verbanac, Giuliana ; Sudar, Davor ; Skokić, Ivica ; Žic, Tomislav ; Hanslmeier, A. ; Woehl, H. ; Roth, M. ; Mursula, K. ; Zhang, L.

Izvornik
Central European astrophysical bulletin (1845-8319) 39 (2015); 135-144

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Solar cycle prediction

Sažetak
In present work we compared the measured and predicted amplitudes of the 24th solar cycle. The modified minimum–maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of methods, was applied to the smoothed monthly sunspot number values (the “old” data set, used before the change introduced on July 1st, 2015). The maximum of the 24th solar cycle occurred in April 2014 with an amplitude of R = 82 and this observed value is very close to our mean predicted value R = 83. The maximum was significantly weaker than in several previous cycles. Additionally, a curious solar activity minimum of 2008, between the solar cycles no. 23 and no. 24 was analysed, as well as the shape of the maximum profile. The maximum of the 24th solar cycle had a double-peak, the second one being higher than the first one. The obtained results represent a strong indication that the minimum–maximum method is a reliable tool for the solar cycle prediction, using data available already 3 years before the preceding minimum of solar activity.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika, Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA