Naslov
An alternative approach to the trade dynamics in Croatia

Autori
Tomić, Daniel

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Economic and Social Development / Milković, Marin ; Kozina, Goran ; Primorac, Dinko - Varaždin : VADEA ; Sveučilište Sjever, 2016, 52-62

Skup
Economic and Social Development, 12th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development

Mjesto i datum
Bangkok, Tajland, 18.02.2016. - 20.02.2016

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
business cycle; Croatia; S-curve; trade dynamics

Sažetak
The point of understanding the international finance and trade perspective is closely related to comprehension of the terms of trade (exchange rate) – trade balance nexus. How well can a country balance its international trade engagement over international price changes and/or applied exchange rate regime is of great importance, especially for a small, opened, indebted and import dependent country such as Croatia. By focusing on the relationship between the terms of trade, exchange rate, volume of trade, current account and output we are trying to provide some new insights into trade dynamics over a business cycle in Croatia. Furthermore, the analysis is done on aggregate level and evaluates only the market of goods, for it constitutes the larger part of the trade balance. Empirical assessment relies on the lead and lag cross-correlation functions between the variables comprising the period 2000 – 2014. Results suggest the existence of the S-curve pattern leading us to some indicative conclusions regarding the trade dynamics in Croatia.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This work has been fully supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project number 9481 Modelling Economic Growth - Advanced Sequencing and Forecasting Algorithm. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Croatian Science Foundation.

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