Naslov
Climate change in the atmosphere-sea system: observations and modeling

Autori
Orlić, Mirko

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Climate Justice - Perspectives from the Natural and Social Sciences / - , 2015, 19-19

Skup
1st Annual IPE Conference

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 13.11.2015

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Plenarno

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
sea-level rise; climate system; flooding events; Bakar

Sažetak
The presentation concentrates on two parts of the climate system – atmosphere and sea. To start with, three different methods of documenting past temperatures are described: analysis of oxygen isotopes in ice cores, measurements with thermometers, and measurements with satellite sensors. The temperatures determined reveal variability on time scales ranging from millennial to decadal and below. Thus, for example, global temperatures rose by approximately 0.8ºC over the past century or so. Also considerable was spatial variability of the temperature increase, implying changes in the atmospheric dynamics and in the occurrence of extremes. Various approaches to modeling are described next. It is shown how the models are used to reproduce past temperatures and to prepare global and regional projections for the twenty-first century. Moreover, precipitation variability in the past and its expected changes in the future are commented upon. The presentation then turns to the sea. In particular, three different methods that are used to determine sea-level change are presented: reconstructions based on geological sea-level indicators, measurements with tide gauges, and measurements with satellite altimeters. Sea-level variability over hundreds of thousands of years and global sea-level rise amounting to approximately 17 cm over the past century is described. It is pointed out that the Mediterranean sea level rose more slowly for a while and that an acceleration was observed recently. It is then shown how modeling is used to reproduce the observations and to project global and regional sea-level rise for the twenty-first century. Additionally, extreme flooding events in various places around the world are mentioned, in particular those in New Orleans (2005), Myanmar (2008), New York (2012), and Philippines (2013). The projection of storm-surge events is briefly commented upon. Extreme flooding events in the Adriatic are described as well ; it is pointed out that the Bakar tide gauge – the oldest one in Croatia – recorded four highest sea levels after the year 2008. The presentation concludes with a projection of the Adriatic storm surges.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA