Naslov
Redefining the Croatian Economic Sentiment Indicator

Autori
Lolić, Ivana ; Sorić, Petar ; Čižmešija, Mirjana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Skup
17th International Conference on Qualitative and Quantitative Economics

Mjesto i datum
Pariz, Francuska, 27.08.2015. - 28.08.2015

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Business and Consumer Survey; Economic Sentiment Indicator; Leading Indicator; Nonlinear Optimization with Constraints

Sažetak
Based on Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) data, the European Commission (EC) regularly publishes the monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for each EU member state. ESI is conceptualized as a leading indicator, aimed ad tracking the overall economic activity. In calculating ESI, the EC employs arbitrarily chosen weights on 15 BCS response balances. This paper raises the predictive quality of ESI by applying nonlinear programming to find such weights that maximize the correlation coefficient of ESI and year-on-year GDP growth. The obtained results show that the highest weights are assigned to the response balances of industrial sector questions, followed by questions from the retail trade sector. This comes as no surprise since the existing literature shows that the industrial production is a plausible proxy for the overall Croatian economic activity and since Croatian GDP is largely influenced by the aggregate personal consumption

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
Rad je objavljen u otvorenom pristupu: Internationa Journal of Social, Behavioral, Education, Economic and Management Engineering: International Science Indeks 104. Rad je u potpunosti financiran sredstvima Hrvatske zaklade za znanost ; znanstveno-istraživački projekt "The role of economic sentiment in explaining macroeconomic trends: methodological improvements and new areas of application", IP- 11-2013-3858

POVEZANOST RADA