Naslov
Do we need to cut back governments’ forecasts: optimism as the rule of thumb?

Autori
Nadoveza, Ozana ; Penava, Marija

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Global Business and Technology Association - 17th annual International Conference - Readings Book / N.J. Delener, Leonora Fuxman, Victor Lu, Susana Rodrigues - Peniche : Lisabon : GBATA, 2015, 504-512

ISBN
1-932917-11-X

Skup
Exploring the possibilities for sustainable future growth in business and technology management

Mjesto i datum
Lisabon, Portugal; Peniche, Portugal, 07.07.2015. - 11.07.2015

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Economic forecasts; Policymakers’ forecast bias; Central banks’ efficiency; Public finance sustainability

Sažetak
The purpose of this research is to prove government institutions’ forecasting bias toward over-optimism. It has already been shown that private sector forecasts are less biased and more accurate than the ones performed by international agencies. However, it can be argued that this is not as dangerous as potential robust and systematic optimistic forecasting bias of government institutions. On the sample of seven Central and Eastern European countries we found that in six of them government institutions and private forecasting institutions systematically overrate real GDP growth rates. Also, in six of them ministries of finance GDP forecasts are steadily higher than private institutions forecasts. In five countries central banks tend to overrate GDP growth rates. However, central banks tend to be less overoptimistic than private forecasters.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA