Naslov
Does Misaligned Currency Affect Economic Growth? – Evidence from Croatia

Autori
Svilokos, Tonći ; Šuman Tolić, Meri

Izvornik
Croatian economic survey ... (1330-4860) 16 (2014), 2; 29-58

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Croatia; currency misalignment; economic growth; fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; Granger causality; VAR

Sažetak
The main objective of this paper is to measure the currency misalignments of the Croatian Kuna and to reveal if it affects economic growth for the period 2001(quarter q1) to 2013 (q3). The estimate relies on recent cointegration techniques, VAR models and Granger causality tests. The findings show that there are two misalignment sub-periods for Croatian Kuna: undervaluation in the period from 2000q1 to 2007q4 and overvaluation in the period from 2008q1 to 2013q3. The evidence reveals that for the whole sample period the Granger causality goes from misalignments (MISA) to GDP growth under the 10% significance level. However, for the two sub-periods any evidence of Granger causality from MISA to GDP growth or vice versa was not found. The research also revealed that the currency misalignments in the observed period were relatively small.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

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