Naslov
Pre-adjustment proces of real retail trade series in Croatia

Autori
Arnerić, Josip ; Čeh Časni, Anita ; Rozga, Ante

Izvornik
The business & management review (2047-2854) 6 (2015), 2; 104-112

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
calendar effects ; time series ; pre-adjustment process ; country specific regressors
(time series ; pre-adjustment process ; country specific regressors)

Sažetak
Economic activity fluctuations are often influenced by various factors related to the calendar. These factors include non-working (non-trading) days, leap years, public holidays etc. In analysis of many economic variables in which time series are seasonally adjusted it is necessary to identify and correct calendar effects using suitable method, but there is no general or unique procedure for correcting these effects in pre-adjustment process. If these effects are not well adjusted, the identification of the ARIMA model may not be correct, and the quality of the seasonal adjustment is poor. Therefore, in thise paper different methods of correction of the calendar effects are compared and applied to time series of real retail trade turnover (RRT) in Croatia (monthly data observed from January 2001 to December 2013). The most common method used is regression model with different types of explanatory variables which take into account calendar effects. The contribution of this paper is to define new explanatory variables (regressors that include not only different number of working and non-working days of the month but also country specific calendar effects) which will give most accurate correction of RRTT time series.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA