Naslov
Economic sentiment and the recession depth in Croatia: a structural break analysis

Autori
Sorić, Petar ; Čižmešija, Mirjana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
The Business & Management Review / P. R. Datta - New York (NY) : The Academy of Business & Retail Management, 2015, 192-200

Skup
International Conference on Business and Economic Development (ICBED)

Mjesto i datum
Sjedinjene Američke Države, 30.03.2015. - 31.03.2015

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Economic sentiment indicator; business and consumer surveys; structural break; Bai-Perron test;

Sažetak
This paper aims to shed some light on the cause-and-effect relationship between economic sentiment and the GDP growth rates in Croatia. The authors focus on the Economic Sentiment Indicator data gathered from Business Surveys and question whether its comovement with GDP is time-stable. Applying the Andrews-Quandt and Bai-Perron structural break tests, it is found that the interdependence between the two observed variables changes substantially in the dawn of the economic crisis in 2008. That way the sample period is split into two subparts. The pre-recession period offers no evidence of Granger causality in any direction, while the recession period strongly confirms economic sentiment as a valuable predictor of actual economic tendencies.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA