Naslov
Possibilities on drought forecasting in Croatia

Autori
Kalin, Lovro ; Cindrić, Ksenija ; Mihajlović, Domagoj ; Matjačić, Blaženka

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Poglavlja u knjigama, znanstveni

Knjiga
Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing

Urednik/ci
Andreu, Joaquin ; Solera, Abel ; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier ; Har-Monteagudo, David ; Van Lanen, Henny A.J.

Izdavač
CRC Press ; A.A. Balkema Publishers

Grad
Leiden

Godina
2015

Raspon stranica
267-271

ISBN
978-1-315-68722-3

Ključne riječi
drought, forecast, Croatia, SPI, ECMWF

Sažetak
Drought is a complex natural hazard that causes the highest economic losses in Croatia. Since damages caused by droughts are increasing, a development of a comprehensive drought monitoring should include a forecasting component in order to provide an in-time warning on drought. In this study the possibilities on drought forecasting are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are calculated for 1- and 3-month time scales. The forecasted SPI values are calculated from the long-range ensemble precipitation forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They are validated by SPI values obtained from the observed monthly precipitation amounts at 23 stations, spanning the 2011-2014 period. The verification has been performed by employing Brier skill scores, as well as the reliability diagrams. The results have revealed a good skill for the one-month SPI forecast and considerably worse skill for three-month forecast

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

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