Naslov
Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Autori
Vasilj, Josip ; Sarajcev, Petar ; Jakus, Damir

Izvornik
International Journal of Electrical, Computer, Electronics and Communication Engineering (1307-6892) 9 (2015), 2; 115-120

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Wind power; Uncertainty; Stochastic process; Monte Carlo simulation

Sažetak
One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Elektrotehnika

POVEZANOST RADA