Naslov
Macroeconomic Impacts of Electricity Generation on Croatian Real GDP: Causality Analysis

Autori
Jakovac, Pavle ; Vlahinić, Nela ; Žiković, Saša

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
15th EBES Conference - Lisbon Program and Abstract Book / - Istanbul : Teknik Basim Matbaacilik, 2016, 209-230

ISBN
978-3-319-27572-7

Skup
15th EBES Conference - Lisbon

Mjesto i datum
Lisabon, Portugal, 08.01.2015. - 10.01.2015

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Economic Growth ; Electricity Generation ; Causality Analysis ; ARDL ; Croatia

Sažetak
This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity generation and economic growth in Croatia using data for the period from 1966 to 2010. The analyzed time span includes the periods of both the socialist and market based economy. Based on a detailed review of previous empirical studies it is possible to conclude that this issue has not been systematically explored and analyzed using Croatia as an example. In the context of adjusting the Croatian electricity sector to the EU’s internal electricity market, knowing the direction and intensity of causal relationship represents an important foundation for design and implementation of the appropriate economic and energy policy. In our analysis we use a multivariate model (a conventional multifactor neoclassical aggregate production function) of real GDP and electricity generation together with capital stock, employment and technological progress. The variable representing technological progress was constructed using principal component analysis since there is no single variable that describes Croatia’s research and innovation capacity. In order to get robust results this paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration procedure with a time break as an appropriate quantitative method when analyzing small samples. The empirical results provide clear support of a unidirectional causality that runs from electricity generation to real GDP in both short- and long-term. Electricity generation has a positive and statistically significant impact on Croatian real GDP. This means that stable, adequate and uninterrupted electricity supply is one of the crucial determinants of Croatia’s economic growth. Croatia should adopt a more vigorous economic policy that should aim to increase investments in the electricity infrastructure primarily through construction of new and revitalization of existing electricity generating capacities.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
Ovaj rad je sufinancirala Hrvatska zaklada za znanost projektom IP-2013-11-2203 te Sveučilište u Rijeci potporom istraživanjima br. 13.02.1.3.05.

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