Naslov
Estimating modifiable coronary heart disease risk in multiple regions of the world : the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score

Autori
McGorrian, Catherine ; Yusuf, Salim ; Islam, Shofiqul ; Jung, Hyejung ; Rangarajan, Sumathy ; Avezum, Alvaro ; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj ; Almahmeed, Wael ; Rumboldt, Zvonko ; Budaj, Andrzej ; Dans, Antonio, Gerstein, Hertzel, Teo, Koon ; Anand, Sonia

Izvornik
European heart journal (0195-668X) 32 (2011), 5; 581-590

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
risk score; myocardial infarction; prediction; rtisk factors

Sažetak
Summating risk factor burden is a useful approach in the assessment of cardiovascular risk among apparently healthy individuals. We aimed to derive and validate a new score for myocardial infarction (MI) risk using modifiable risk factors, derived from the INTERHEART case–control study (n ¼ 19 470). Multiple logistic regression was used to create the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score (IHMRS). Internal validation was performed using split-sample methods. External validation was performed in an international prospective cohort study. A risk model including apolipoproteins, smoking, second-hand smoke exposure, hypertension, and diabetes was developed. Addition of further modifiable risk factors did not improve score discrimination in an external cohort. Split-sample validation studies showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve c-statistic of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.72]. The IHMRS was positively associated with incident MI in a large cohort of people at low risk for cardiovascular disease [12% increase in MI risk (95% CI: 8, 16%) with a 1-point increase in score] and showed appropriate discrimination in this cohort (ROC c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.74). Results were consistent across ethnic groups and geographic regions. A non-laboratory-based score is also supplied. Using multiple modifiable risk factors from the INTERHEART case–control.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

POVEZANOST RADA