Naslov
Verification of 10-m wind speed obtained by dynamical downcaling in the complex terrain of Croatia

Autori
Hrastinski, Mario ; Horvath, Kristian ; Odak Plenković, Iris ; Bajić, Alica ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Stanešić, Antonio ; Tudor, Martina

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, stručni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Association 2014 Annual Event (EWEA 2014) / - , 2014

Skup
European Wind Energy Association 2014 Annual Event (EWEA 2014)

Mjesto i datum
Barcelona, Španjolska, 10.03.2014. - 13.03.2014

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Poster

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
numerical weather prediction; mesoscale models; statistical verification; continuous scores; categorical scores

Sažetak
Knowing the wind properties is a key to the assessment of wind energy resources and for wind power forecasting. In the complex terrain and coastal regions, where a significant portion of wind energy arises from regional/local winds, it is beneficial to utilize a chain of numerical models to dynamically refine the associated wind fields. Obtained wind speed forecasts from ALADIN 8 km (hydrostatic) and ALADIN 2 km (non-hydrostatic) grid spacing model simulations and refined CFD- like model version at 2 km horizontal resolution (DADA ; hydrostatic) have been compared with measurements for the period of 2011-2012. Statistical verification procedure was performed considering wind speed as continuous and categorical variable. The continuous statistical scores, such as multiplicative mean systematic error (MBIAS), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated and averaged over monthly periods to show their seasonal variability. For verification of modeled mean wind speed as categorical predictand 4 x 4 contingency tables were used (thresholds were 3.4, 5.5 and 8 m/s). Frequency bias (FBIAS ; unity implies no bias) and critical success index (CSI ; measure of relative accuracy) were considered for each category. Overall skill was estimated using Heidke skill score. As expected, both versions of the 2 km grid model give an overall improvement over the 8 km grid spacing model. Unlike ALADIN 8 km, both DADA and ALADIN 2 km more often predict category of strong winds, and less often category of weak winds. That leads to better relative accuracy in category of strong winds, especially at more complex terrain.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

Napomena
IPA projekt WILL4WIND, IPA2007/HR/16IPO/001-040507

POVEZANOST RADA