Naslov
Modelling Inflation in Croatia

Autori
Vizek, Maruška ; Broz, Tanja

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, neobjavljeni rad, znanstveni

Skup
13th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Young Economists' Seminar

Mjesto i datum
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska, 27.06.2007. - 30.06.2007

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
inflation modeling; cointegration; general-to-specific; Croatia

Sažetak
This aim of this paper is to construct a quarterly inflation model for Croatia. In order to model inflation dynamics we use general-to- specific approach. The advantage of this approach is its ability to deliver results based on underlying economic theories of inflation, which are also consistent with properties of the data. A two step procedure is followed. In the first step long run sectoral analysis of inflation sources is conducted, yielding long run determinants of inflation (mark-up, excess money, nominal effective exchange rate and output gap). In the second step we estimate an equilibrium error correction model of inflation deploying, among other variables of interest, long run solutions derived in the first step. The derived model of inflation suggests that mark-up and excess money relationships are very important for explaining short run behaviour of inflation, as well as output gap and nominal effective exchange rate, import prices, interest rates and narrow money. Comparing the results of the model, suggest that short run inflation is much more responsive to supply side and exchange rate changes than to monetary conditions.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA