Naslov
Empirical Estimation of Triple Gap Relationship in Croatia

Autori
Tomić, Daniel

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Knowledge and business challenge of globalisation in 2013 / Merkač Skok, Marjana ; Cingula, Marijan - Celje : Fakulteta za komercialne in poslovne vede, Celje, 2013, 501-510

ISBN
978-961-6825-83-2

Skup
Knowledge and business challenge of globalisation in 2013, 5th International scientific Conference

Mjesto i datum
Celje, Slovenija, 14.11.2013. - 15.11.2013

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
macroeconomic management; triple gap analysis; trade deficit developments; ARDL modelling; Croatia

Sažetak
How to stabilise the macro economy through active national – international economic policy is relevant question for macroeconomic management. Economic structures reflected by the differences in budget, trade and savings relations often reveal sources of economic inefficiencies in the system. The aim of this paper is to extend twin deficit hypothesis towards triple gap concept in order to analyse fundamental disequilibrium of the Croatian economy. By relating external deficit with differences between national investment - national savings and budget revenues - expenditures we are in fact addressing important policy implications concerning long-run capability and viability of economic progress in Croatia. Relevance of external trade position should be a cause of concern for economic policy makers in Croatia, especially now in the course of economic crisis when net export is expected to become a new driver of new economic growth. Why? Limitations of monetary policy and de facto ambiguous reach of fiscal policy (EU as well as international organizations such as IMF are constantly pressuring fiscal austerity) suggest that Croatia is on the verge of crossing the line and falling into the economic abyss. In this sense, ‘triple gaps’ could be taken as guidelines for comprehensive set of policy measures pointed towards encouraging growth and remedying structural imbalances. In order to bypass theoretical limitations within national income accounting identity, gaps are calculated as ratios, rather than differences between two values. Empirical estimation relies on bounds-testing approach to cointegration (ARDL) and error-correction modelling and can be used solely as an indicator for further research.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA