ࡱ> oqnq`|bjbjqPqP.::c%"!!!8!!, h5"""<"<"<"<"<"<"4444444$6h8j49)<"<"))4<"<""5a.a.a.)<"<"4a.)4a.a.:c3{4<"" Z!],4 4850h5)4R8]-8{4{4844<"n$a.f&d'<"<"<"44-d<"<"<"h5)))) D  ^~^ Goran Pavelin What will it be? A Vision of Social and Economic Development of Europe with a Special Reference to Cultural Tourism 2030 Introduction The people of Europe and European countries have, each in their own specific way, played throughout the history a very active role in creating of what we call present. Due to a lack of detachment and objectiveness, it is very difficult to distinguish footholds in today's world when forming a vision of future. Nevertheless, if the variable of the cultural tourism is left out, the history confirms that that was one of the first forms of tourism that appeared in human history. Initially inspired by a religious motive, today cultural tourism includes the realization of an active interaction with local population, providing that it is able to communicate a cultural dimension of its heritage. However, in twenty years time, there will be numerous changes in Europe. Therefore, the first part of the paper will be discussing partial projections in the context of political and legal environment, then economic, social and societal images as well as the influence of technology on socio-economic and cultural development. Vision of general environment Political and legal environment as a moderator of European culture European history is a very dynamic reading matter. Revolutions and changes on international level are evident still today on the geographical map of Europe: territorial factionalism and shape of borders between countries have been marking the disunion for centuries. Today in Europe, there are more than 80 nations in 49 countries between the Atlantic and the Urals. Besides, there are 307 national groups, that is ethnic or language minorities with more than 103 million members in European countries. Viewed in retrospect, even in the second half of the 20th century, majority communities were mostly indifferent or had a negative attitude towards minority groups and only in a few cases did the majority communities have explicitly positive attitude towards minorities. On the other hand, if the minority groups were in danger or existentially threatened, they were not even ready for the evaluation of their minority status. With the implementation of a certain degree of integration, on the territory of Europe, a democratic environment was gradually created from a political as well as legal standpoint. However, the expectations that the democracy would automatically solve the issue of minorities did not bring any major results. The only thing that imposed itself was the obligation to find a way to solve these issues. In the 1990s numerous unsolved issues escalated on the Eurasian continent. With the breakup of Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union new states were formed, mostly on the basis of ethnical criterion. It is worth mentioning that many critics predict that the integration of European states into united Europe would not be entirely successful, mainly due to inefficiency in solving of certain minority issues and interests. On the other hand, the unstoppable process of integrating the states into the European Union has a direct impact on the need to revise other issues as well, on a political as well as on a legal level. In other words, the process of integration of a certain country into the European Union starts with standardization of legal regulations and in that way it directly influences politics, economy and social environment, security and foreign policy, cooperation and administration of justice, eternal affairs, etc. In that sense, the freedom of individuals becomes a general standard of behavior and activity, which considerably moves criteria in the countries whose heritage was differently organized in earlier stages. It is expected from countries whose political and legal platform was in many ways different, or is different in comparison to a political and legal heritage of the European Union, to have a period of adjustment not only on an infrastructural level, but also in segments of implementation of new standards. Generally speaking, political and legal environment in European countries in the future can be evaluated as positive because in that way the preconditions for long-term peace are created, which is also an aim of every individual. However, it needs to be emphasized that Europe's future also depends on the level of securing a status for all peoples, nations and all denominations as a balance to previous periods of a neglect of multicultural European continent. Economic environment The second guideline in predicting of a general European environment in 2030 refers to the economy. In a common political and legal environment, which supports a peaceful solution on an international level, the economy can make progress with a dynamic and in a direction characteristic for every country. Apart from that, on the territory of Europe there has been a lot integration, which has also influenced economic progress of certain countries. Consequently to that, an equal development of all countries has not been achieved in Europe today. That legacy has been making the gap between the developed countries, developing countries and transition countries wider, especially when one takes into consideration the fact that the countries that want to join the EU have to meet the imposed economic requirements. The promptness of the stabilization and joining measures leads to the effect that we have today and that is the financial crisis, which manifests itself through economic crisis that is transmitted from developed countries to developing countries and countries in transition. However, with the introduction of new economic order, opening of the market and establishment of the institute of private ownership, the countries in transition are going through an internal crisis on all levels. These changes are mainly evident in the countries of former socialist system. The result of that is the decline in the citizens' standard, higher unemployment, liquidation of uncompetitive businesses, lower market values, etc. Stronger economies are resisting the crisis, while the weaker ones and insolvent national economies need a much longer period of time to recover. All this leads to a wider gap between economies and the solutions are to be found in the introduction of a higher level of economy specialization and that is the prevalence of the competitive industrial branches and closing down of insolvent and uncompetitive systems. In that sense, The Republic of Croatia has a very demanding task. All of these changes affect the formation of a new knowledge and new business activities, which contributes to general development of social and economic behavior and working culture. The image of the economy is very wide and that is not only on the EU level and on the level of each country. Today, it is seen globally because the factors of an economic system are able to connect without much restrain. The evidence of that are corporations which have driven out private ownership with the introduction of dispersed ownership structure i.e. stock ownership. From that viewpoint, share capital is networked and on the EU territory all the assumptions of undisturbed circulation of not only capital but also people, i.e. knowledge, goods and services have been realized. The globalization of economic activity if followed by the waves of cultural transformation in the way that it affects the question of identity, life style, etc. This however, shows itself on local levels, so local identity and culture are rooted out and replaced by symbols of global trade marks. Social and societal environment Social and societal reality in Europe in 2030 can be predicted by the analysis of demographic indicators. Generally speaking, 12% of total human population is inhabited in Europe (60% of world's population lives in Asia). The population is not equally spread on the territory of Europe so for example, there are 16 000 inhabitants per km2 in Monaco, whereas in Iceland there are 2,5 inhabitants per km2. Another significant indicator is the natural movement of population. This indicator is influenced by a migration variable and growth variable influence. Migration implicitly includes spatial movement of population and it is observed through immigration and emigration of people, while natural growth can be positive or negative all depending on the number of newborns in relation to the number of people who die. The natural growth is predicted based on the share of adult population, but also on a specific quality of a certain environment or even tradition. Apart from the mentioned variables, demographic transition should be taken into consideration. It indicates the changes in population which happened, which are happening and which will happen in all countries in the world. It is about changes from high birth-rate and mortality rates to low but constant birth-rate and mortality rate. These stages are evident in the following. The first stage is a high and changeable birth-rate and mortality. Then in the next stage mortality decreases due to better conditions, standards, improvements in medicine, etc. The birth-rate is still for some time on a high level, but after a certain period of time the mentality changes so the birth-rate decreases. In the third stage both birth-rate and mortality decrease but they remain, indicating the continuous less important growth or natural decline. From the viewpoint of a demographic transition, every country in the world is specific. For instance, Croatia entered the demographic transition in the first half of the 20th century. It entered the second phase in the 1960s and that lasted until the 1990s. The third phase is in progress, but with a negative natural growth. With the backward movement on the time scale, developed European countries have gone through a demographic transition, taken into account that in some, minimal differences of natural growth and natural fall have cyclically been repeated. However, population policy influences the duration of certain phases. It is about stimulation or restrictive policy of natural growth. The variable of spatial population movement has already been mentioned as being one of the factors of a populations demographic structure. The most frequent causes of migrations are economic issues and that is when people from passive and poor regions move to the attractive ones with a better standard. Inner migrations include populating cities and depopulating villages. However, causes of wars, religious and national intolerance, climate, natural disasters, etc. influence the movement of population. Immigration, i.e. moving in of people from other countries, changes population's age structure of the country which accepts these immigrants. The movement of population can be permanent or temporary. The permanent one means that people do not return to the country of origin, while temporary movements are linked to work, education and similar. Seasonal movements need to be mentioned as well, which are mostly connected to tourism, agriculture and similar. If taken into consideration that Europe has largely entered the third stage of demographic transition, the predictions for 2030 are not optimistic. It is expected that the territory of Europe will be mostly populated by senior population, so countries have opened their borders in order to compensate the negativity that would follow that. European countries are even today facing the deficiency of the age group of mature population, which leads to the import of working force. Eurostata keeps records of this and other data, where the influences of demographic transitions on each European country's level can be seen. The developed countries are under the pressure of immigration, whereas the countries with a lower level of development register emigration. Demographic changes in 1997 and 2005 in relation to 2008 point to the fact that countries in Europe create politics differently, which directly or indirectly influences demographical changes. These are in European countries in most cases in direct correlation with net migrations. The question that imposes itself is where the most immigrants, who come to Europe, are from and which groups they belong to. If the closeness to religious groups is taken into consideration, it can be concluded that the highest inflow is from Islamic countries. Therefore, it can be assumed that the members of Islamic religious groups will in 20 years or more become a significant part of Europe's population. Technical and technological platform What needs to be emphasized as the last but not the least point of prediction is the technical and technological platform, which has in a very short period of time been rising to a higher level integrating ways, patterns and forms of communication channels and at the same time decreasing language barriers. The phase of economic transformation on the territory of Europe needs to be taken into consideration from a technical and technological aspect. The developed regions are in a postindustrial phase, whereas there are still important regions which are in a transition from industrial to postindustrial phase of development. This disparity also has an impact on ecological component, which is becoming a very important factor and prerequisite to a viable development. With the implementation of integration on European level, ecological standards are becoming more important. Though, these issues are still left incomplete on local levels where local culture of living and working contributes mostly to it together with the flexibility in terms of exploiting of natural resources for commercial purposes. On this issue, there are important differences in Europe. The protection of natural reserves, protection of natural environment and other essential questions are in direct correlation with the level of culture and environmental awareness. What contributes to that is the introduction of new technologies which reduce the negative effect on the environment, for example using of biogas, wind or solar power for production of electrical power and similar. These initiatives have not been entirely recognized in developing countries and the introduction of new technologies is also being slowed down by the corporations which supply the market with conventional energy forms. Finally, in 20 years time, there will be a shortage of water on world level. But then, Europe is not directly under the influence of these tendencies and that is mainly because of the effort that is being put in the protection of nature, preservation of river flows and quality of lakes. The culture of Europe and cultural tourism in 2030 After having predicted the changes on political and legal level and then in economic, social and societal environment, as well as on the level of technical support, culture can be taken into consideration as a specific future product on European continent. In accordance with that, culture still remains one of the most deliberated, defined and redefined terms. Haralambos gives the following concept of culture: culture is a state of mind when people aspire to the idea of perfecting individual achievement culture is connected with the civilization in etatistic sense, therefore culture of a certain society can be superior to other societies, culture in most general sense is also a high culture since it is at the same time a collective set of artistic and intellectual works within a certain society According to Ralph Linton culture of a society is the way of life of its members; collection of ideas and habits learned, shared and transmitted form generation to generation. According to Maurice Duverger the term culture has a large and narrow sense. In a narrow sense, culture includes belief (ideology, value systems, legitimacy and myths). In a large sense, culture includes special forms according to which all elements that make a society group are combined: collective notions, beliefs, ideology, institutions, technology and even geographic and demographic elements. Culture can be seen as an entire cultural heritage, in other words as a system of learned patterns of thinking, feeling and acting. Generally speaking, culture can be observed through three interrelated sets of phenomena. These are: behavioral patterns shared values, beliefs, rules and tools and technique (technology). Behavioral patterns are learned from the earliest age and result in forms which are today seen as equal to life styles. This influence appears on many levels, so family, as a fundamental social institution, has the biggest influence. Preschool and school curriculums, education system taken as a whole, religious institutions, working environment and the influence of other factors which can also include the media, all influence the creation of culture in the most general sense. This order covers the entire diapason of available forms of influences on culture, and the tools used for that implementation work in a transnational way. Media platform, e.g. cable TV, the Internet, films, etc. have an impact on the creation of an individual's perception of the world and milieu, which is to the biggest extent adjusted to the commercialization of culture in the sense of universally accepted value systems formed through the pattern of supply and demand. In this way, culture becomes a commercial good with a targeted consumer category. On the other hand, local culture, under the influence of global marketing, is neglected, not only from the standpoint of the communicators of offered values but also from the standpoint of the media as a channel by whose means certain ideas are launched to the public. It can be said that in this way, a universal devastation of cultural values of micro locations is done. Society, to a certain extent, represents a set of concepts which its members have about it. Every society group is to some extent a cultural whole which creates history. Nation is the strongest fundamental cultural whole and tribes, peoples, towns and nations gather within broader cultural entities which are commonly known as civilizations. As stated in the beginning, there is a great number of minorities living in Europe and when the category of subcultures is added, we can talk about a very wide span of cultural manifestations. Besides, globalization does not mean that the world is becoming culturally more homogenous, because globalization includes more than just the emphasis on local. Therefore, there are two contrary processes within the same phenomenon; on the one hand there is versatility and on the other hand there is concentration. In this respect, the future of Europe lies in versatility and acceptance of differences and intercultural tolerance. Though, one must take into consideration the factors which influence culture and that would also include the perception of identity. This perception has also been through its phases of evolution. At first, the focus was on the enlightening subject, then on the social one and finally on the postmodern one. The enlightening subject appeared with the period of Croatian Literary Modernism between the 16th and 18th century. In this concept, an individual was not a part of anything that was bigger than himself or herself, but was considered to have his or her own attitudes and opinions and in accordance with that his or her own identity. Social subject appeared in the 19th century when bigger changes in society occurred. Industrialization and urbanization made the complexity of the society bigger and structural forms prevailed. It also came to a redistribution of wealth, mainly through the influence of stockholding institution, which brought together citizens through bureaucratic administration of modern institutions and a modern state. In that way, an individual lost importance and became one with interest groups and the identity was linked with class, profession, place of origin or nationality. We still have that influence today, however, the process is moving in the direction of individualization. In that sense, the identity of an individual is fragmented because people are complex in their nature. Fast changes that are predicted for the future will continue to influence the redefining of an individual through various prisms of personal experience and perception. During the previous century, group approaches towards studying of identity issues were developed and what emerged from that were paradigms based on gender, class, race ecological and similar concepts, whose escalation was evident in different movements and a lot of them exist still today. This means that the identity, considering a wider span, has become a part of a political issue of today. Globalization followed the processes inherited in the past which influenced the fragmentation of individual's identity. The mobility of people and the improvement of communication manifested itself in the aspect of tourism through the making of identity of tourist destinations, entire regions as well as the continents. In this matter, identity becomes a framework for creating of an image in public, which is no longer local but national and global. However, the growing convergence of cultural contents and information as a part of concentrated tendencies on word's media markets does not give automatically partial and one-dimensional globalization but it gives advantage to the local level. In this connection, a vision of future cultural tourism, as a segment of common civilization progress, can be created. Taking into account what has already been said, the question of the viability of authentic location identities arises as well as the one of the preservation of historical and cultural heritage and tradition, and that is the preservation of immaterial and material cultural basis of a certain destination. In other words, cultural tourism is one of the oldest motivations for traveling, whose origin is to be found in pilgrimages. After that period, cultural identity of a certain tourist destination developed in accordance with local attractions, in other words in accordance with the concentration of certain offers of cultural contents. However, culture assumes numerous variations in view of networking of influences of subcultures. In this way, cultural events are manifested in movements which are united by music, sport, fashion, science, technology, health, etc. I doing so, interaction becomes the main goal: joint action, acquiring new knowledge, i.e. active relationship between objects and subjects as well as a transformation through an experience in which both parties achieve cultural expansion. So, the stress is precisely on the interpersonal way of communication. By doing so, a reflection on diversities, their understanding and acceptance, i.e. the increase of the level of general tolerance, is encouraged. In that sense, cultural tourism in Europe has a very big influence on the future. The differences can become advantages when accomplishing common prosperity through cultural tourism. However, in order to have a positive progress on this level, a series of adjustments need to be made. These adjustments are slow because the culture of a certain climate changes slowly. This means that the tendencies, which could even be called prejudices, about the identity of certain cultural groups are still present. Generalization is namely the result of the ignorance of numerous facts about the observed set. Though, modern communication and information technology enables an individual approach to global audience, so it can be expected that the changes concerning the improvement of public perception about cultural specific qualities will go in that direction. That is also the way to the growth of cultural tourism which can be developed in urban centers as well as in rural parts of European countries. The issue of balancing urban and rural culture is just a matter of time because in accordance with a shared agricultural policy of the EU, the countries that will join the Union are adjusting by supporting the settling of rural areas and the development of rural tourism. Within that scope, an essential characteristic of tourism product comes out of the culture of living, i.e. living in a natural ambiance, consuming of naturally produced food, getting acquainted with natural environment and similar. Conclusion What prevails in the formation of general vision refers to the level of communication technology development. What is created in that manner is an assumption about a higher level of knowledge about a certain culture and prevailing of cultural diversities with the increase of tolerance level. On the other hand, the culture of today points to the cultural heritage from the past, so the changes in the future can be expected only along with the acceptance of new visions of the present. To sum up, cultural tourism represents one of the strategic preconditions for the realization of Europe, mainly because of the creation of space for an equal status for all cultures of our multicultural continent. Bibliography Douverger, M. (2001), Politi ka sociologija, PanLiber, Osijek-Zagreb-Split. Fanuko, N. (i drugi autori) (1992), Sociologija, `kolska knjiga, Zagreb. Haralambos, M./Holborn M. (2002), Sociologija, Golden Marketing, Zagreb. Pan, C./Pfeil, B.S. (2000), Die Volksgruppen in Europa, Braumuller Verlag, Wien.  Pan, C., Pfeil, B.S.: Die Volksgruppen in Europa, Braumuller Verlag, Wien, 2000.  Haralambos, M., Holborn, M.: Sociologija, Golden Marketing, Zagreb, 2002., str. 589.  Haralambos, M., Holborn, M.: Sociologija, Golden Marketing, Zagreb, 2002., str. 883.  Fanuko, N. (i grupa autora): Sociologija, kolska knjiga, Zagreb, 1992., str. 23.  Douve O (*-%%E'F'''--39X9pAA?C@C{E|E}EGG'O(O-S/S6S8STgggjjk:kkk)l4lPlݻݲݲݲݲݻݻݻݻݲݲݲh-]6CJ] h-]CJh-]0JCJaJh-]CJH*aJjh-]0JCJUaJh-]56CJaJh-]5CJaJh-]CJaJh-]h-]5CJ\aJ h-]aJ h-]aJ8 O - dxgd-] 7d`7gd-]gd-] 7d`7gd-]xgd-]7dx`7gd-]$7dx`7a$gd-]$dxa$gd-]l||c!$%%%')/3|672939X9:O@oApA 7d`7gd-] 7dx`7gd-] 7d`7gd-]gd-]gd-] 7d`7gd-]pAABCC,DD GG H-HOHM)OW[\]agg dgd-] 7d`7gd-] & Fdgd-] & Fdgd-] 7d`7gd-] dxgd-]ggijjj|klPllllllNmmm|||||||gd-]gd-] gd-]dgd-] 7d`7gd-]xgd-]PllllllllllNmOmmmmmn||||||||||||||||||||||||||ÿh_0JmHnHuh<]2 h<]20Jjh<]20JUjhHfUhHfU h-]CJjh-]0JCJUh-]jh-]0JUh_h+'AmHsHh_h-]mHsHh_h-]6CJ]mHsHh_h-]CJmHsH)rger, M.: Politi ka sociologija, PanLiber, Osijek-Zagreb-Split, 2001., str. 107-123.     PAGE  PAGE 1 ||||||||||||h]hgd<]2 &`#$gdHf ,1h. A!"#$% P@P -]Normal$dha$CJ_HaJmH sH tHH@H -]Naslov 3$d@& 5CJaJ Z@Z -]Naslov 4$7dx@&`756CJ]aJT@T -]Naslov 5$7dx@&`7 5CJaJ>A@> Zadani font odlomkaViV Obi na tablica4 l4a .k. 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