Naslov
Beyond the Global Recession: Mutual Trade and Economic Convergence

Autori
Buturac, Goran

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Beyond the Economic Crisis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead / Mehic, Eldin - Sarajevo : Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Sarajevu, 2012, 277-294

ISBN
978-9958-25-077-4

Skup
6th International Conference of the School of Economics and Business "Beyond the Economic Crisis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead"

Mjesto i datum
Sarajevo, Bosna i Hercegovina, 12.10.2012. - 13.10.2012

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
global recession; economic convergence; mutual trade; SEE countries

Sažetak
The purpose of this paper is to explore mutual trade and economic convergence in South-east European (SEE) countries beyond the global recession. The research methodology of mutual trade is based on applying the following indicators: Entropy Index (EI), Revealed Comparative Advantages Indicator (RCA), Lafay Index (LFI), Grubel-Loyd Index (GL) and Trade Intensity Index (TII). In the analysis of economic convergence the Theil Index is used. The main sources of the data are: WIIW Handbook of Statistics (2010), Eurostat database COMEXT, and IMF. The macroeconomic characteristics of the observed SEE countries before the appearance of the global recession, during and after the global recession, have not significantly changed. All countries are characterized by: a macroeconomic imbalance, external imbalance, budget deficit, large foreign indebtedness and low level of employment. The obtained results indicate the presence of macroeconomic convergence among the analyzed SEE countries. The obtained results for the period 2000-2010 confirm the process of macroeconomic convergence among the analyzed SEE countries. The intensity of the process is different for individual analyzed variables. Macroeconomic convergence is most evident in the equalization of the price level (CPI index) and the indebtedness of the state sectors in SEE countries. The analysis of GDP per capita indicates a slight decrease in the gap which appeared in 2003, and continued to develop intensively during the recession. Convergence is also present in reducing the difference in the level of wages, as well as in levels of unemployment. The analysis of mutual trade shows that most SEE economies liberated their international trade rather quickly, and developed intense trade relations with other countries. Trade specialization and comparative advantages are still expressed in low value added products. In all countries during the recession a decrease of imports was higher than decrease of export which resulted in the improvement of the trade balance. Economic recovery of international markets especially in the EU in 2010 and 2011 had a positive influence on export growth. However, export recovery has been very slow. On the other hand, a strong decline in domestic demand, as a consequence of recession had impacts on the reduction of imports. The implications of this research are first of all oriented towards policy makers. New knowledge about economic growth, economic convergence and mutual trade in SEE countries should be a good framework for creating a new economic model which enables economic growth and prosperity. The new economic circumstances imply a need to bring down government expenditure and a reduction of the budget deficit. A reduction in personal consumption and the need to stop the growth of government spending indicate that in the forthcoming period the only and major sources of economic growth are an increase of investments and exports. Tax reduction is one of the preconditions for competitive repositioning and for the increase of investment activities, which could result in higher rates of economic growth. Without them it is impossible to solve serious structural issues and the high rate of unemployment. The obtained results confirm the possibilities of the strengthening of mutual economic cooperation and joint efforts on the international markets especially in the circumstances of the global economic crisis and post-recession period.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA