Naslov
Forecasting Inflation in Western Balkans – Does One Shoe Fit All?

Autori
Botrić, Valerija

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

ISBN
978-953-7813-04-8

Skup
8th International Conference Economic integrations, competition and cooperation

Mjesto i datum
Opatija, Hrvatska, 06.04.2011. - 09.04.2011

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
inflation; forecasting; Western Balkans

Sažetak
Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries, as it forms a crucial part of the so called Maastricht criteria. For Western Balkan countries, which have all experienced a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in case of old EU member states. Although the recent past evidence has shown that the Western Balkan countries have gone through the period of mild inflation rates, the underlying instabilities of their economies might bring about yet another inflation spin. However, a literature on the determinants of the inflation generation process in the Western Balkan countries is, with a few notable exceptions, scarce. Even less is publicly available on the forecasting practices of the region’s central banks. Since this variable is expected to be one of the most strictly monitored if and when Western Balkan countries realise their EU aspirations, the analysis provided in this paper will try to fill the existing gap in the literature.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA