Naslov
Early Warning Indicators – Leading or Misleading?

Autori
Jurlin, Krešimir ; Puljiz, Jakša ; Vučković, Valentina

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
9th International Conference Challenges of Europe : growth and competitiveness-reversing the trends : Conference proceedings / Reić, Zlatan ; Šimić, Vladimir - Split : Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2011, 409-427

Skup
International Conference Challenges of Europe : growth and competitiveness-reversing the trends (9 ; 2011)

Mjesto i datum
Bol, Hrvatska; Split, Hrvatska, 26.05.2011. - 28.05.2011

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Competitiveness ; Early Warning Indicators ; Crisis ; Predicting

Sažetak
In the recent years, the debate on the future growth concept and rethinking competitiveness has been triggered by the worldwide financial crisis. The early-warning or leading indicators are not very new in economic literature since presented in works like the ones by Kaminsky et al. (1997) and Kaminsky-Reinhart (1999) that focus on a group of monetary, financial, fiscal and macroeconomic variables that issue signals that can be helpful to anticipate financial crises. There have been many studies about leading indicators of future economic crises, based on multiple indicators called Early Warning Systems (EWS). In the recent years, there has been a strong divergence between the European countries regarding national competitiveness and resilience to the recent crisis. Not only Greece, which had rather low values of certain very important indicators, but a number of other countries that were considered as successful or even role-models (Ireland, and Baltic states) deteriorated. On the other hand, some countries that were recently perceived as not very successful reformers went rather well through the crisis. In June 2010, The European Council adopted the Europe 2020 strategy inter alia asking for more stringent country reporting on the „core macroeconomic issues related to growth and competitiveness“, urging for developing a scoreboard to better assess competitiveness developments and imbalances and allow for an early detection of unsustainable or dangerous trends (European Council 2010). On September 29, 2010 the Commission, as part of its legislative proposals on macroeconomic surveillance by the EU and euro area, submitted a new proposal for regulations, providing for a early-warning scoreboard comprised the following set of indicators: current account balance, net external debt, real effective exchange rate, private sector debt, public sector debt. The proposal to introduce a macroeconomic scoreboard as part of wide-ranging economic policy surveillance in the euro area marks a step in the right direction. But it does leave important issues unresolved, making it difficult to assess scoreboard approaches as an economic policy guidance tool. Against this background, the purpose of our paper is to assess the relative contribution of a wide array of determinants of financial crises for selected European countries and to build a model for assessment of early-warning indicators that had changed significantly before a country faced deteriorated macroeconomic indicators. We intend to test a possible strength of a number of indicators to identify those that may have served as early warning indicators of the 2007/2008 crisis, as well as the indicators that shaded the signs of crisis to come, fuelled by strong economic growth in the years preceding the crises.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA