Naslov
Climate change and wildfire risk in Croatia

Autori
Vučetić, Višnjica ; Vučetić, Marko

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
International Conference on Fire Behaviour and Risk: Focus on Wildland Urban Interfaces / Duce, Pierpaolo ; Spano, Donatella - Sassari : University of Sassari, 2011, 1-1

Skup
International Conference on Fire Behaviour and Risk: Focus on Wildland Urban Interfaces

Mjesto i datum
Alghero, Italija, 04.10.2011. - 06.10.2011

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
wildfire ; monthly and seasonal severity rating ; climate change ; Croatia

Sažetak
The weather conditions such as a long-lasting dry spell and insolation duration, high air temperature and strong wind essentially increase the potential danger for starting and spreading of forest fires. All these relevant factors are observed on the Croatian Adriatic coast and islands and lead to the conclusion that the Adriatic area is prone to wildfires during summer season. The main goal is to research the regional impact of climate change on the potential greater risk of wildfires in Croatia from May to September. Monthly and seasonal severity rating (MSR and SSR) are used as indices for the potential risk assessment of forest fires which are one of the products of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. According to the map presentation of mean long-term (1961-1990) seasonal severity ratings, the most endangered area is the mid-Adriatic coast with the adjacent islands. Using the secular weather series of Crikvenica (1891-2006) and Hvar (1867-2006), which represent the northern and middle Croatian coast and islands respectively, the secular variations of MSR has been estimated. In order to establish the eventual increase in potentional wildfire risk on the Croatian mountainous hinterland the secular data of Gospic (1878-2006) has also been used for the MSR assessment. A significant monthly increase (confidence level is 0.05) in the MSR was observed for Crikvenica for all months of the period considered and for Hvar only for June and July. This increase is particularly important for June, as it indicates the possibility of the earlier onset of the forest fire season on the Adriatic area. The analysis also showed that higher wildfire danger has spread from the middle Adriatic to the northern, especially in July and August, but there is not higher risk towards the mountain inland.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geofizika

POVEZANOST RADA