Naslov
Implications of Expected Climatic Changes on Kaštela Bay

Autori
Barić, Ante ; Gačić, Miro ; Grbec, Branka ; Margeta, Jure ; Miloš, Boško ; Onofri, Ivo ; Veldić, V.

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Poglavlja u knjigama, znanstveni

Knjiga
Climatic change and the Mediterranean : environmental and societal impacts of climatic change and sea-level rise in the Mediterranean region ; Vol. II

Urednik/ci
Jeftić, L. ; Kečkeš, S. ; Pernetta, C.

Izdavač
Edward Arnold

Grad
London : Delhi

Godina
1996

Raspon stranica
143-249

ISBN
0-340-64565-2

Ključne riječi
climatic change ; Kaštela Bay

Sažetak
The Task Team was asked to identify and assess the potential impacts of expected climatic changes on the Kaštela Bay area and to provide inputs into the Coastal Area Management Programme for Kaštela Bay, of the Mediterranean Action Plan of UNEP. The Task Team based its assessment and evaluation of future potential impacts on the scenarious of future climate developed by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. According to this local scenario for the Kaštela Bay region, the expected temperature change is close to the global mean value (i.e. 1C per degree global change) in all seasons.In winter and spring the predicted change will be slightly below the global mean, 0.9 C per degree of global change. In summer and autumn the change is likely to be slighty greater than this. The scenarious suggest that precipitation will show an increase in all seasons except autumn. In winter the change is likely to be around +2% per degree of global temperature change. In spring an increase of 6% per degree of global change is indicated. The greatest change is likely to occur in summer, over 10% per C of global change, however, this is the season of verylow rainfall amounts so that only a small absolute increase can be expected. In autumn a slight reduction, of between 0 and 2% per C, is indicated by the scenarios. Sea level changes used in assessing impacts are based on the latest global estimates: 18 +-12 cm by the year 2030 ; 38+-14 cm by the year 2050 and 65+-35 cm by the year 2100. Assessments of the possible impacts of expected climatic changes were made on the basis of the existing knowledge and data concerning the characteristics of each domain, ecosystem or human activity. There are many uncertainties in the predictions of future impacts, particularly in the case of those on natural ecosystems As a consequence, the possible impacts are described qualitatively and, wherever possible, quantitatively. Actions to address the major expected impacts are proposed.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Biologija

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