Naslov
On the Impact of the Kuna Exchange Rate on Croatian Foreign Trade Results: Elasticity Approach

Autori
Sorić, Petar

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, neobjavljeni rad, znanstveni

Skup
14th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Young Economists´ Seminar

Mjesto i datum
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska, 25.06.2008. - 29.06.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Pozvano predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
cointegration; ECM; trade balance; exchange rate

Sažetak
The aim of this paper is to analyze Croatian trade balance and its determinants. Hence four models were proposed: a “catch all” model with all influencing variables included, and three disaggregated models concerning Croatian bilateral relationships with three important trade partners. The models were estimated in order to answer a question often disscused by policy makers, academics and the public: what is the impact of the kuna exchange rate on Croatian trade flows, i.e. how does the monetary transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel really work in terms of its results on trade balance? The impact of the eventual kuna devaluation on Croatian trade results was modelled using cointegration and error correction model. The analysis showed that Croatian economy exhibits a gap between the real and monetary economic system, and that unfavourable foreign trade results cannot be addressed by monetary instruments and measures.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA