Naslov
A comparison of traditional forecasting methods for short-term and long-term prediction of faults in the broadband networks

Autori
Željko Deljac ; Marijan Kunštić ; Boris Spahija

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of 34th international convention on information and communication technology, electronics and microelectronics - MIPRO 2011, CTI / - , 2011, 269-274

ISBN
978-953-233-061-8

Skup
MIPRO 2011

Mjesto i datum
Opatija, Hrvatska, 23.05.2011. - 27.05.2011

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Forecasting; Faults; Broadband telecommunication networks

Sažetak
Abstract – In this paper we analyze different traditional forecasting methods for prediction of the expected number of faults in broadband telecommunication networks. The dataset consists of over 1 million measured values, collected in recent years. A lot of factors, both in the network and outside the network, contribute to the formation of faults. Therefore, the faults occurring can be considered as a nonlinear time series. A comparison of autoregressive models and conditional heteroscedastic models is presented for short-term and long-term prediction of appearance of faults. Assessment of the accuracy of tested models is made by comparing the results obtained by modeling and the actual data. We are trying to find the best candidates for the analysis and forecasting of faults occurring.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Elektrotehnika

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