Naslov
ASSESSING CROATIAN GDP COMPONENTS VIA ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR

Autori
Čižmešija, Mirjana ; Sorić Petar

Izvornik
Ekonomska istraživanja (1331-677X) 23 (2010), 4; 1-10

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
ESI; business survey; VAR model; GDP components

Sažetak
This paper investigated the possibility of using ESI indicator as a short-term predictor of Croatian GDP and it’s main components. Through a bivariate VAR it was shown that GDP movements can more aqurately be described using ESI series. The second model resulted in somewhat different results. Namely, it was shown that ESI Granger causes only Croatian private consumption, while other GDP components haven’t revealed a significant statistical relationship. To sumarize, according to the models proposed in this paper it is obvious that ESI can be used both to identify the tipping points of Croatian economy as a whole and those of private consumption as the largest Croatian macroeconomic aggregate. Other components, however, can’t be statistically explained by ESI movements.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA