Naslov
Predictability of seasonal rainfall fluctuations

Autori
Branković, Č. ; Palmer, T.N.

Izvornik
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling

Vrsta, podvrsta
Ostale vrste radova, izvještaj

Godina
1995

Ključne riječi
ensemble integrations; ENSO index; seasonal predictability

Sažetak
The ECMWF model, forced with observed SSTs, was able to simulate the interannual variations in the globe-scale velocity potential on seasonal time scales. On a regional basis, rainfall over the Sahel and, to a lesser extent, India showed the correct sense of interannual variation, though in absolute terms the model appears to have an overall dry bias in these areas. Additional integrations were made to study the impact of the observed SST anomalies in individual oceans. Much of the interannual variation in both Indian and African rainfall can be accounted for by the remote effect of the tropical Pacific SST anomalies only. By comparison with the effect of the Pacific, interannual variability in Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic Ocean, or extratropical SSTs had relatively modest influence on rainfall in the areas studied.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

Napomena
Report No. 21, WMO/TD-665, 6.5-6.6, WMO Geneva

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