Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 493903
Mid-latitude atmospheric prediction on time scales of 10-30 days
Mid-latitude atmospheric prediction on time scales of 10-30 days, 1988. (izvještaj).
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Naslov
Mid-latitude atmospheric prediction on time scales of 10-30 days
Autori
Hollingsworth, A. ; Cubasch, U. ; Tibaldi, S. ; Brankovic, C. ; Palmer, T.N. ; Campbell, L.
Izvornik
ECMWF Technical Memorandum 146
Vrsta, podvrsta
Ostale vrste radova, izvještaj
Godina
1988
Ključne riječi
predictability; forecast skill; atmospheric variability
Sažetak
Current levels of skill in medium- and extended-range forecasts in mid-latitudes are much affected by the ability to forecast persistent anomalies. Blocking action is recognised as a key forecast problem in both time ranges. A few examples of extended-range forecasts are discussed in detail. One example demonstrates that a pair of forecast for 10-day means can diverge from each other quite rapidly, even though they start from closely spaced initial conditions. Each of the two contradictory forecasts was successful in some regions, but the regions of success did not overlap. Verification results indicate that the average level of skill in the extended range is often controlled by the skill in the medium range. Model and analysis improvements will be as important for extended-range forecasts as they are for medium-range forecasts. Beyond the range of deterministic probability, the most useful forecasts are likely to be those which can identify the range of likely atmospheric evolutions and the probability of each evolution. For this one needs a model capable of simulating the full range of atmospheric variability, one needs methods to generate a good sample of likely evolutions and one needs a means of interpreting the results in a useful way. Current results are encouraging and justify continued research in the area.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Geologija
