Naslov
Vulnerability of western Istrian coast to sea-level rise

Autori
Faivre, Sanja ; Pahernik, Mladen

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts / Lukić, Aleksandar - Zagreb, 2010, 43-43

ISBN
978-953-6076-22-2

Skup
International Scientific Conference Applied Geography in Theory and Practice

Mjesto i datum
Zagreb, Hrvatska, 05.11.2010. - 06.11.2010

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
sea-level change; vulnerability assessment; inundation; Adriatic Sea; Croatia

Sažetak
The number of papers dealing with sea level rise, and particularly those dealing with its acceleration due to global warming along the shores of the Earth, has rapidly increased in the last decades. Knowing the complexity of local climatic, geologic and tectonic phenomena it is necessary to consider separately and precisely different sections of the coast. This paper aims to define the GIS-based potentially endangered areas along the western Istrian coast, to create risk-of-sea flooding map for the next hundred years period, based on the past 2 ka relative movements. Geoarchaeological findings are particularly important because they directly show how the coastal region has already changed during the last 2000 years. Fortunately, the west coast of Istria abounds of archaeological vestiges. Some of them are under the sea today, like piers, quays, fish tanks, and quarries. They have been, and still are, the object of numerous archaeological and geoarchaeological studies. Those data were compared with predictions derived from glacio-hydro-isostatic models. The comparison of the sea level data with the predicted sea level curves allows the calculation of tectonic rates since Roman times that range between 0.63 and -0.89 mm/year (Antonioli et al. 2007, Florido et al, in press). The latest research based on sedimentological, radiocarbon and geomorphological analyses (Faivre et al., in press) shows, as well, that in the same time period, and even longer (5 ka), the coast of Istria has been exposed to a probably continuous lowering (-0.45 and -1.92 ± 0.2 mm/year). These movements still do not have a precise explanation, although they are particularly important for a better evaluation of the vulnerability and risks of the Istrian coast. The Croatian coast is principally rocky with one large and several small deltas. Even if the Croatian coastal area, generally appear to have a low vulnerability to changes in sea level (Barić et al. 2008 ; Juračić et al. 2009), as well as the Istrian one, the precise analysis should be carried out in order to plan human activities in the future. Therefore, this paper, which represents the first phase of investigation, aims to set up a interpolated digital elevation model (DEM) to make a first order approximation of the coastal vulnerable cites along the western Istrain coast. The DEM is based on the vector data of 1 m equidistance contour lines, elevation and trigonometrical points of the altitudes obtained from the Basic Croatian Map (HOK) on the scale 1:5 000. The zone of 1 000 m from the coast have been vectorised. Inside the extension 3D Analyst of the ESRI Arc GIS program package the TIN relief model have been interpolated which was converted into the raster GRID format with the cell size 1x1 m. This DEM was used for the identification of the vulnerable areas selecting the raster cells with relative heights from 0.3, 0.5 and 1.0 m. The selected zones of the altitude classes represent values of the potential sea level rise according to which surfaces of the potentially flooded categories have been calculated. In this phase of the study the most vulnerable areas have been obtained which should be precisely studied later. The terrestrial geodetic survey has to be done, in order to increase the density of the altitudinal data to create a more precise DEM of the selected areas, along with precise geomorphological maps. The obtained results assume significance not only from a geomorphological point of view but also from a coastal management perspective.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geografija

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