Naslov
The Central European limited-area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN-LAEF

Autori
Wang, Yong ; Bellus, Martin ; Wittmann, Cristoph ; Steinheimer, Martin ; Weidle, Florian ; Kann, Alexander ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Tian, Weihong ; Ma, Xulin ; Tascu, Simona ; Bazile, Eric

Izvornik
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (0035-9009) 137 (2011), 655; 483-502

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
ensemble prediction system; probabilistic forecasts

Sažetak
The Central European limited-area ensemble forecasting system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational—Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting) has been developed within the framework of ALADIN international cooperation and the Regional Cooperation for Limited-Area modelling in Central Europe (RC LACE). It was put into pre-operation in March 2007. The main feature of the pre-operational ALADIN-LAEF was the dynamical downscaling of the global ensemble forecast from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In 2009, ALADIN-LAEF was upgraded with several methods for dealing with the forecast uncertainties to improve the forecast quality. These are: (1) the blending method, which combines the large-scale uncertainty generated by ECMWF singular vectors with the small-scale perturbations resolved by ALADIN breeding into atmospheric initial condition perturbations ; (2) the multi-physics approach, wherein different physics schemes are used for different forecast members to account for model uncertainties ; and (3) the non-cycling surface breeding technique, which generates surface initial condition perturbations. This article illustrates the technical details of the updated ALADIN-LAEF and investigates its performance. Detailed verification of the upgraded ALADIN-LAEF and a comparison with its first implementation (dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts) are presented for a two-month period in summer 2007. The results show better performance and skill for the upgraded system due to the better representation of forecast uncertainties.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA