Naslov
A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations

Autori
Palmer, T.N. ; Branković, Č. ; Richardson, D.

Izvornik
ECMWF Technical Memorandum 265

Vrsta, podvrsta
Ostale vrste radova, izvještaj

Godina
1998

Ključne riječi
decision-model analysis; ensemble integrations; seasona predictability

Sažetak
A probabilistic analysis is made of seasonal ensemble integrations from the PROVOST project. The results from the analysis of relative operating characteristic are input to a simple decision model. Results from the Brier skill score analysis indicate that the multi-model ensemble is substantially more skilful than climatology. Both reliability and resolution are better for the multi-model ensemble than for the individual-model ensembles. The decision model analysis show that the economic value of seasonal forecasts is strongly dependent on the cost to the user of taking precautionary action against the event considered.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

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