Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 471080
A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126 (2000), 567; 2013-2033 doi:10.1002/qj.49712656703 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 471080 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
Autori
Palmer, T.N. ; Branković, Čedomir ; Richardson, D.
Izvornik
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (0035-9009) 126
(2000), 567;
2013-2033
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni
Ključne riječi
decision-model analysis; ensemble integrations; seasona predictability
Sažetak
A probabilistic analysis is made of seasonal ensemble integrations from the PROVOST project. The results from the analysis of relative operating characteristic are input to a simple decision model. Results from the Brier skill score analysis indicate that the multi-model ensemble is substantially more skilful than climatology. Both reliability and resolution are better for the multi-model ensemble than for the individual-model ensembles. The decision model analysis show that the economic value of seasonal forecasts is strongly dependent on the cost to the user of taking precautionary action against the event considered.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Geologija
Poveznice na cjeloviti tekst rada:
Pristup cjelovitom tekstu rada doi onlinelibrary.wiley.com onlinelibrary.wiley.comCitiraj ovu publikaciju:
Časopis indeksira:
- Current Contents Connect (CCC)
- Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
- Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
- SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
- Scopus
