Naslov
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) program on extended-range prediction

Autori
Palmer, T. N. ; Branković, Čedomir ; Molteni, F. ; Tibaldi, S. ; Ferranti, L. ; Hollingsworth, A. ; Cubasch, U. ; Klinker, E.

Izvornik
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (0003-0007) 71 (1990), 9; 1317-1330

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
extended-range forecast; systematic errors; tropical/extratropical interaction; ensemble forecasting

Sažetak
Results from 3 ½-yr experimental program of extended-range integrations of the ECMWF numerical weather prediction model are summarized. The topics discussed include: 1) The evolution of extended-range systematic errors and skill in forecasting large-scale weather regime transitions ; 2) The dependence of extended-range systematic error and skill on model horizontal resolution ; 3) Monthly mean forecast of tropical rainfall ; 4) Tropical/extratropical interaction, and the influence of tropical low-frequency variability on extratropical forecast skill ; 5) Ensemble forecasting, including the impact of ensemble averaging on forecast skill, and ensemble dispersion as a measure of forecast reliability ; and 6) Probabilistic forecasting using phase-space cluster analysis. Our results are broadly consistent with those from other major centers evaluating the feasibility of dynamical extended-range prediction. We believe that operational extende-range forecasting using the ECMWF model may be viable to day 20 – and possibly beyond – following further research on techniques for Monte Carlo forecasting, and when model systematic error in the tropics has been reduced significantly.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA