Naslov
Predicting Extinction in Salmon: How Far Can We Trust the Models?

Autori
Schultz, Stewart T.

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Assessing Extinction Risk for West Coast Salmon / MacCall, A.D. ; Wainwright, T.C. - Portland (OR) : U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical memorandum NMFS-NWFSC- 56, 1996, 157-182

Skup
Assessing Extinction Risk for West Coast Salmon Proceedings of the Workshop

Mjesto i datum
Portland (OR), Sjedinjene Američke Države, 13.11.1996. - 15.11.1996

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
salmon; extinction; population viability analysis; Washington; Oregon; USA

Sažetak
Mathematical models can be used to estimate the extinction risk. The best model is that which most accurately captures the mechanics of population fluctuation. We can trust a model as far as we trust our own understanding of the population. Any forecast of a population trajectory is based, either explicitly or implicitly, on a model of the population. In extreme cases, an explicit analysis may not be necessary to justify legal listing, and will only confirm what is already obvious. Models of salmonids have been, and will continue to be, useful in monitoring the health of randomly fluctuating populations and in assessing the relative efficacy of candidate- management plans. Accurate models will be easier to develop for salmonids than for most other animals or plants, because of the wealth of information collected on this economically important group. Results of past modeling efforts suggest that some stocks of coho salmon are in danger of extinction, and should be given federal status as threatened or endangered.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Biologija

POVEZANOST RADA