Naslov
Global financial crises and VAR performance in emerging markets : A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia

Autori
Žiković, Saša ; Aktan, Bora

Izvornik
Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci : časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu (1331-8004) 27 (2009), 1; 149-170

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
financial crisis ; emerging markets ; Value at Risk ; extreme value theory ; hybrid historical simulation

Sažetak
We investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at Risk (VaR) models with the daily returns of Turkish (XU100) and Croatian (CROBEX) stock index prior to and during the ongoing financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR models, we also study the behaviour of conditional and unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) and hybrid historical simulation (HHS) models to generate 95, 99 and 99.5% confidence level estimates. Results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR model except EVT and HHS models seriously underpredict the true level of risk, with EVT models doing so at a higher cost of capital compared to HHS model.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

POVEZANOST RADA