Naslov
The economic value of seasonal forecasts

Autori
Palmer, T.N. ; Branković, Čedomir ; Richardson, D.S.

Izvornik
Exchanges (1026-0471) 3 (1998), 4; 2-5

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, kratko priopcenje, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
seasonal forecasts; economic value

Sažetak
Seasonal forecasting is essentially probabilistic. Standard scores can be computed from ensembles to give objective measures of meteorological skill. However, it is often difficult to say whether a useful level of skill has been achieved. We have considered two rudimentary events, and have evaluated them over a rather extensive region. Multi-model ensembles generally have higher value of skill and potentially higher economic value than single model. From a practical point of view, this stresses the need for a synthesis of the available seasonal forecasts into a single multi-model multi-initial condition ensemble probability forecast.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija

POVEZANOST RADA