Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 4305
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models // Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces / Kalpić, Damir ; Hljuz Dobrić, Vesna (ur.).
Zagreb: Sveučilišni računski centar Sveučilišta u Zagrebu (Srce), 1997. str. 483-488 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
CROSBI ID: 4305 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca
Naslov
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models
Autori
Labaš, Mirjana
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni
Izvornik
Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces
/ Kalpić, Damir ; Hljuz Dobrić, Vesna - Zagreb : Sveučilišni računski centar Sveučilišta u Zagrebu (Srce), 1997, 483-488
Skup
Information Technology Interfaces "97
Mjesto i datum
Pula, Hrvatska, 17.06.1997. - 20.06.1997
Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje
Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija
Ključne riječi
judgemental forecasting; system dynamics; bounded rationality; scenario forecast
Sažetak
A challenge in judgemental forecasting is to benefit from human expert knowledge, but in the same time avoid limitations on the information processing and computing abilities of human forecasters. Judgemental forecaster should also fulfil desire for good explanation of forecasts. The paper argues that system dynamics can help to meet this challenge and avoid intuitively correct forecasts that are actually result of "bounded rationality". System dynamics is also an excellent vehicle for communication with forecast "consumers". Forrester"s "Market Growth Model" is used to illustrate the way of using system dynamics models as an aid in judgemental forecasting.
Izvorni jezik
Hrvatski
Znanstvena područja
Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti
