Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 4302
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making on Investing in Bonds
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making on Investing in Bonds // SOR "97 Proceedings / Rupnik, V., Zadnik Stirn L., Drobne S. (ur.).
Ljubljana: Slovensko društvo informatika, 1997. str. 309-314 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
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Naslov
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making on Investing in Bonds
Autori
Pejić-Bach, Mirjana
Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni
Izvornik
SOR "97 Proceedings
/ Rupnik, V., Zadnik Stirn L., Drobne S. - Ljubljana : Slovensko društvo informatika, 1997, 309-314
Skup
The 4th International Symposium on Operational Research in Slovenia
Mjesto i datum
Preddvor, Slovenija, 01.10.1997. - 03.10.1997
Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje
Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija
Ključne riječi
Bayesian decision analysis; investing; bonds; combining forecasts
Sažetak
In decision making on investing in bonds point estimates of interest rates labelled as "forecasts" are often produced by human experts, who tend to overreact and overestimate future interest rates. Combination of judgemental forecasts and other forecasts (statistical, market, survey) under formal rules may be superior because it helps in avoiding judgemental biases. Bayesian decision aiding technique using normal distribution is presented to illustrate how investors may combine forecasts and in doing so boost their chance of success.
Izvorni jezik
Engleski
Znanstvena područja
Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti
POVEZANOST RADA
