Naslov
Evaluating trend models in forecasting exports time series in Croatia

Autori
Dumičić, Ksenija ; Čibarić, Irena ; Čeh Časni, Anita ;

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Operational Research SOR '09 / Zadnik Stirn, L. ; Žerovnik, J. ; Drobne, S. ; Lisec, A. - Nova Gorica : Slovensko društvo informatika, 2009, 495-505

ISBN
978-961-6165-30-3

Skup
10th International Symposium on Operational Research in Slovenia

Mjesto i datum
Nova Gorica, Slovenija, 23.09.2009. - 25.09.2009

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
regression trend models forecasting; Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE); Mean Square Deviation (MSD); information criteria

Sažetak
The paper discusses trend models for modelling exports and relative percentage share of exports in gross domestic product in Croatia. The article focuses on examining the adequacy of four trend models: linear, quadratic, exponential and second-order exponential model. The main emphasis is on comparison of statistical quality measures of forecasts based on the fitted models. For this purpose, forecasts quality indicators as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Deviation (MSD) and information criteria (AIC , SC, HQ) based on EViews and Minitab software output were applied.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija

Napomena
Citirano u znanstvenim bazama: ISI, INSPEC, Journal of Economic Literatute, Current Mathematical Publications, Mathematical Review

POVEZANOST RADA